Open source trends for 2025
Quoting: Open source trends 2025- Duck Alignment Academy —
If the bubble doesn’t burst this year, they hype at least slows way down. We’re already starting to see some studies indicate that AI increases workload and that improvements are slowing down. Nvidia stock (disclosure: I own a small number of shares) was up 179% in 2024, but most of that was in the first half of the year. The price has been basically flat since mid-October. This at least suggests that there is a limit to the amount of money companies are willing to throw at AI. At some point, investors will want a return, and LLMs don’t appear to be particularly profitable. So I think we’ll see AI settle into use cases where it works well and fade away where it doesn’t.
Okay, but what does all of this mean for open source projects? First, it will lead to a leveling off in AI-generated code and bug report “contributions” as vendors start charging more money for services. This will be a big relief for maintainers overwhelmed by low-quality “slop”. Secondly, if you’ve been trying to figure out how to incorporate AI into your project to attract more developers or financial backing, you can just…not. Wait it out. But you should still develop an AI contribution policy for your project if you haven’t already. The AI Policy Resources page has ones that I’ve collected if you need inspiration.